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Interest rates & property market in 2026

21 April 2026
by guest contributor: Simon Wood
5-minute read

As we move through 2026, the economic and property landscape continues to present both challenges and opportunities.

At BG Private, many clients are now asking:

Where are interest rates heading?
Is now the right time to invest?
How should I structure my debt?

While uncertainty remains, recent data provides a clearer direction and highlights the importance of strategic decision making.

Interest rates: likely higher for longer

Inflation is currently around 3.7% annually, slightly lower than earlier in the year but still above the RBA’s 2-3% target range.

Recent global developments, particularly sharp increases in energy prices (incl. fuel), have influenced some Economists’ inflation expectations to surge to approximately 5.5%, suggesting inflation pressures may persist longer than previously anticipated.

At the same time, unemployment has remained relatively stable at around 4.3%, reflecting a still-resilient labour market, although early signs of softening are emerging.

This combination means:

Interest rates are likely to remain elevated
Further increases remain possible
The focus should now shift to structuring debt so it remains manageable under a range of scenarios – not simply relying on interest rates to fall

Property market: resilient but more selective

Despite higher interest rates, the property market has remained resilient – with most capital cities still recording positive growth, led by Perth and Brisbane, while Sydney and Melbourne have stabilised at high price levels rather than declining.

Melbourne property (forecast growth 6-7% in 2026*) has underperformed recently, but is now seen as a “catch-up” market with solid fundamentals
Sydney property (forecast growth 5-6% in 2026*) is not “booming” but holding firm
Brisbane (forecast growth 10-11% in 2026*) and Perth (forecast growth 12-13% in 2026*) remain the strongest performing markets, driven by migration, infrastructure, and relative affordability
Adelaide (forecast growth 8% in 2026*)
Canberra (forecast growth 3-5% in 2026*)

This growth is largely driven by:

Ongoing housing shortages
Strong population growth
A labour market that remains relatively strong, although showing early signs of softening

At the same time, the property market has become more selective:

Growth varies significantly by location and asset quality
Buyers are more cautious
Affordability is a growing constraint

This is now a disciplined market, meaning previously you could buy an average property and still do well because the market was doing the heavy lifting. Whereas now, property outcomes are driven by asset selection, cashflow, and structure – not simply rising prices.

Lending: more options, more complexity

Lending has changed significantly in recent years. Banks are more conservative and slower with processing finance applications, while non-bank and private lenders have expanded. This means more funding options, but also more complexity. The key is not just accessing finance, but structuring it correctly and aligning it with your broader strategy.

What you could do

Speak with your accountant or financial advisor about:

Stress-testing your debt for higher rates
Reviewing and optimising lending structures
Using equity (conservatively, not aggressively)
Acting selectively, rather than waiting for perfect conditions

A well structured approach to finance (business and personal), combined with expert advice, can create clarity and confidence – even in an uncertain economy. This is an ideal time to review your position.

*Forecasts published by KPMG.

Looking to explore your position?

If you have any questions please contact us on +61 3 9810 0700 or

About the author

Simon Wood

Director | First Point Group

Simon Wood is an accomplished and trusted consultant with over 20 years of experience in residential and business lending. He is an Accredited Mortgage Consultant with the MFAA and holds a Diploma in Lending.