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A message from our Financial Planning division:

We want to keep you informed about the recent developments and discuss our approach during this period of heightened financial market volatility. During the past week, new tariffs were announced by the United States, affecting a wide range of imported goods entering the US. While the full scope and long-term effects of these policies are still unfolding, we would like to share some of our thoughts.

What’s happening?

The US administration has implemented tariffs on imports from various countries, with rates varying by region and product type. These changes, effective as of early April 2025, aim to address trade imbalances and encourage domestic production.

Impact:

  • The impact on the broader economy has been estimated at between -1.5-2.0% of gross domestic product (GDP).
  • Australia was given the minimum tariff and might be insulated somewhat given China could be forced to drive more stimulus.
  • Global trade has been a large driver of wealth creation over the last 80 years. The US has seen its manufacturing base move to lower cost Asia over the last 40 years and is seeking to re-establish that back in the US. To the extent that countries were running large tariffs themselves, then we have some sympathy for the US. However, the US administration seems to be aggrieved at any country running a trade surplus which makes resolution more challenging.

Where to from here?

  • Markets are normally quick to price the worst case, and this is what the market appears to be doing at present. The market will generally anticipate a reasonable economic slowdown and attempt to price that into the market over the next few weeks.
  • Incrementally, news should improve (from a political perspective) from there. Negotiations will allow some improvement in the markets (e.g. Trump is talking to China about tariff relief in exchange for the sale of TikTok).
  • Political responses from other countries will be key. This may work against the US over the long run by forcing other countries to form alliances and strengthen competitiveness.

Our approach

This is expected to be a period of uncertainty for markets after a period of solid returns. But, as always, investors need to think longer term when investing. Markets tend to have short memories and while the sharp selloff following Trump’s tariff announcement may feel dramatic, we have seen similar shocks before. In 2018, escalating US-China trade tensions triggered a 20% drop in the S&P 500. Fast forward to 2025, and while the scale may be smaller in drawdown terms, the intensity has picked up with one day moves far more extreme than expected.

It is important to remember that volatility is a normal part of investing. Markets will move in cycles—sometimes reacting sharply to geopolitical or economic events—but they have historically rebounded over time. Our experience has shown us that those who remain invested and avoid reacting emotionally to short-term noise are often best placed to benefit from the recovery.

For our Financial Planning clients: Your investment strategy is built with these periods in mind—designed to weather market fluctuations and keep you on track towards your long-term financial goals. Trying to time the market or make decisions based on fear can do more harm than good. In fact, periods like this can often present opportunities for patient, long-term investors.

What you can do

We recommend avoiding any reaction based on emotion to short-term market swings. Long-term success often comes from sticking to a disciplined plan rather than chasing headlines. In the meantime, feel free to contact your BG Private Financial Advisor with any questions. Our goal is to keep you reassured and informed.

If you are not yet one of our Financial Planning clients, you can also contact us with any questions on +61 3 9810 0700 or